Good morning. Today, for the first time in a little while, the gilt market has to get by without help from the Bank of England. Some observations — but no predictions — on that situation below. In the US stock market, we will find out what happens after a wild up day (last Thursday) and a wild down day (Friday). An outbreak of calm? We doubt it. Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com & ethan.wu@ft.com.

The good (that is, bad) news from the big US banks 

A bank cannot perform much better than the economy it operates in. Banks make loans and provide transaction services to businesses and households. They are leveraged, so in an upturn they do a bit better than the economy. But in a downturn, they do a bit worse, so it evens out. If banks try to grow much faster than their economic environment, they blow themselves up, à la 2008.

By the same token, when trying to understand an economy, look at how its big diversified banks are doing. Few businesses provide a better view. Third-quarter earnings for four of the biggest US diversified banks came out last Friday: JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup and US Bancorp. What did we learn?