The Federal Reserve warned of rising economic risks when it kept interest rates on hold in early May, and minutes from that meeting — due to be published next week — will be poured over by investors for further signs of concern.

Chair Jay Powell used his speech in the first week of May to highlight rising “uncertainty” surrounding the trajectory of the world’s biggest economy, with markets having swung sharply on President Donald Trump’s trade tariff announcements.

Markets are currently pricing in close to two interest rate cuts by the end of this year. But some strategists think that is overly optimistic, at a time when investors are also betting that inflation one year from now will be roughly 3.4 per cent, according to the one-year US inflation swap.