Europe’s natural gas sector is going back to the future. The continent has come a long way since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 upended decades of energy policy. It has managed to compensate much-reduced Russian imports by attracting more liquefied natural gas — particularly from the US — and using a lot less of the fuel overall.

But over the past few weeks, choppiness has returned. There is less gas in storage than customary at this time of year. Prices jumped to a two-year high on February 10. They have since fallen by almost a fifth as European countries consider relaxing requirements to refill storage in the summer. With the start of negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, there has even been talk of shut-in Russian imports creeping back into the mix.